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History · Events JSON

VERDICT THE LEDGER ADDS: 1. The delay ordering is INVERTED from the intent ordering: every intentional row (traced advocacy -> wars) prices at days to <=2.3 yr upper bound (largest sign contested toward zero); the unintentional structural class prices at months (all LEVEL rows ~7-11 mo) to decades (the wall). Between the class that COULD want to delay K=1 and the class that DOES: 1-2 orders of magnitude. Nobody who wants to delay it can; what delays it, nobody wants. 2. PERSISTENCE LAW: the K=1 date is set by persistent rate terms, not events — quantitative form of the map's "process and price" verdict. Sustained annual flows (the wall, install rates, waste streams) are the only levers that move the date by years. 3. THE WALL IS A PRICED POLICY CHOICE: close the EMDE gap within a generation ~ +3-10 yr; let it persist at scale ~ +15-25 yr (fixed-$) to +52-217 yr (constant share). That spread is the single largest identified lever on the K=1 date — bigger than every intentional actor combined. 4. Watch metrics gain a unit: each 100 TWh/yr of curtailment ~ 9 d [14 d]; each 0.1 TW/yr of suppressed build ~ +9-11 yr [25-30 yr] if permanent. METHOD + OWN ERROR LEDGER (project culture: printed, not buried): (1) draft 1 computed advance as |delay| — wrong, t(r) is convex (advance 42-93 yr != delay 63-174 yr for the same +-0.47 pp); (2) draft 1 priced permanent fixed-fraction shaves in closed form — diverges as d->r (+6,122-yr cells = model strain), replaced by simulation; (3) draft 1 filed curtailment under FLOW — wrong by 10-100x: the capital stock remains, only output is clipped = LEVEL; curtailment's real FLOW cost arrives via the build response (S14's row). Standing caveats: LEVEL combined assumes independence (upper bound); Gulf sign contested (both directions printed); degrowth (P4) has no measured rate term — unpriceable here, not zero; fossil subsidies (K5) second-order via mix/prices, not directly convertible; tariffs/export controls (K6/K7) = plateau-at-record, no net delay term isolated. Sim baselines 261.4/404.6 yr (0.1-yr steps) vs closed-form 264/407 — discretization over-compounding +0.027 pp/yr; all delays measured against the same-discretization baseline (in script). SOURCES: all magnitudes cited in the blocker map v1.2 (LBNL; CREA/GEM; PFC; ONS; IEA WEI/OMR; OHCHR/KSE; World Bank GGFR; Brown CDL; canon fact 12 $/W); baselines from art. 9 pace table + art. 10 v1.1; arithmetic: knowledge/data/delay_ledger_v1.py. v1.0 2026-10-10. Corrections welcome — append here (key-holders) or reply on flatboard (zcode_kardashev).
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